SUPERBOWL XLIII: The CARDINAL RULE(S)

Year-to-date NFL: 9-1. +7.5 units; Cumulative 12-3. +8.5 units

[Super Bowl XLIII] February 1, 2009 @ Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay, FL.

CARDINALS (+7) vs. Steelers. 1 unit.  The Steelers are 5-2 in prior Superbowl appearances and Superbowl XLIII will be the first appearance for the Cardinals franchise. Jumping on the Cardinals bandwagon has been a fun ride, but lack of pedigree notwithstanding is this matchup really THAT shocking? I observed before the divisional playoffs that:

“In case you haven’t been able to pay attention closely, there is not a single noteworthy team in the NFL this year.  Sure, somebody had to earn No.1 seeds in each conference, but that’s purely semantics.”

Let me also add the immortal words of Herman Edwards, “You play to win the game!” I don't think the Cardinals are finished yet and may benefit from the underdog-leaning free agent population at Raymond James. The field and weather conditinos will closely simulate a typical Cardinals home game as well. If you've been following me throughout the playoffs it really shouldn't matter what happens because you're up big; so stay disciplined.

MATCHUPS

When the CARDINALS have the ball.  I am not a Kurt Warner fan per se, but I’m pounding the table that he has no-brainer HOF credentials. When healthy and equipped with a strong arsenal of weapons, his production has always been at an elite level relative to the best of all-time. How soon people forget that he already has two MVP’s in the trophy case back home flanking a Superbowl MVP award. His ability to read and exploit the blitz will be essential because he has the mobility of a statue. The Steelers zone blitz scheme will require different tactics than the Eagles man blitz version, but Arizona will still have to keep their commitment to the run enough to keep the defense honest. I think the running back committee can accomplish this; a 100+ yard effort. In particular, I was impressed how the Cardinals actually ran in “running situations” against the Eagles instead of trying to substitute it with the short passing game. The prudent, and sometimes inspired, play-calling to-date gives me confidence that the Cardinals offense can actually thrive. The Steelers scheme is the best in the NFL, but the overall talent in the secondary is not close to the Eagles. The Steelers are playing with fire if they think they can single-cover Larry Fitzgerald and rely on tricking Warner all day. Fitzgerald has already broken the immortal Jerry Rice’s record for most receiving yards during the playoffs. If the Steelers do take the prudent route, Warner is more than happy to throw at #1b Anquan Boldin or #3 Steve Breaston, too, if Larry is smothered. However, Larry may truly be an unstoppable force judging by the regularity with which he’s been making circus catches and running like a man possessed after the catch. LeBeau’s defense is vulnerable to deep sideline bombs, and the Cardinals have the tools to challenge it even into double coverage.

When the STEELERS have the ball.  I am not a Ben Roethlisberger fan, either, but one has to recognize that his play has risen to another level this year However, this year’s version of the offense has many deficiencies starting with a highly suspect offensive line and no Bus (aka Jerome Bettis) to earn tough yards rushing up the middle. This often forces one of their better receiving threats, TE Heath Miller, to stay in to block. The Eagles TE Brent Celek was able to run wild against the Cardinals so figuring a way to free Miller against them needs to be a high priority. Big Ben’s ability to extend plays with his nimble feet and plus size/strength is responsible for too much of the Steeler offense. Amazing things can happen when receivers have over five seconds to get open, but that is not something you want to rely on. Field and weather condition in Tampa Bay is expected to be ideal, so stopping the pass rush will be that much more difficult. Meanwhile, Arizona has been very efficient in stuffing the run over the last month, which has been the crux to their winning streak. Not a great blitzing team, the Cards can negate the Steelers running game regardless as they already have against superior run offenses in the playoffs.

SPECIAL TEAMS.  The vital third leg of the game may have a big impact, but the matchup is even. Both teams have solid kickers, although Neil Rackers probably has longer range. The returners are both solid, too, while both punters are inconsistent. 

COACH.  The surreal nature of the two weeks leading to the Superbowl means coaching experience and skill takes on added importance. Steeler’s Mike Tomlin and Cardinals’ Ken Whisenhunt, though, are both first time coaches completing their second year in the league. Whisenhunt clearly has had a larger role molding the formerly sorry Cardinals into what they are today. Merely selecting Kurt Warner as the starting QB over pretty boy Matt Leinert was a bigger strategic decision than Tomlin has ever had to face. Tomlin does have the best defensive coordinator in the league in Dick LeBeau on his side, but the most interesting question is if Whisenhunt still has any little nuggets of knowledge he can exploit against the Steelers from his stint as offensive coordinator [his last position]. Jon “Chucky” Gruden’s intimate knowledge of the Raider offense before taking over as the Buccaneers head coach paid huge dividends in Superbowl XXXVII, but that was after only one season elapsing.