Wednesday, January 14, 2009

JOBS WAS OUT OF TOUCH

After months of speculation surrounding the true condition of his health, Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking a leave of absence through the end of June (at least) after suggesting everything was under control a few days ago.  Despite the tremendous performance of AAPL stock since iPOD and iTUNES et al. captured the public's consciousness the company was short-sighted in allowing a Cult of the CEO environment to thrive.
For AAPL reluctant disclosure, obfuscation, and misdirection may be good marketing tactics for a product launch to keep its fanboys on edge, but was completely irresponsible in regards to Jobs' health; of course shareholder should have received an honest and timely appraisal when the issue first arose.  The stock is being punished after-hours and deservedly so.  If Jobs' prognosis is to never return, than $60/sh is not out of the question, especially with such a sour market backdrop.  Bullish analyst loudly protest that AAPL has a deep bench, a fat balance sheet, and growing robustly, but so what? Most shareholders are putting as much faith in the CEO/Visionary that favors black clothing as in the product line.  Steve Jobs, rightly or wrongly, was considered the company's economic moat.
More Repurcussions.  Not to say that there are not ample reasons for gloom being confirmed basis (real estate, financials, retail, advertising, blah-blah-blah), but I'm afraid the outsized mindshare AAPL has will offer the perfect excuse for a another wave of major selling tomorrow. Hopefully investors avoided being fully invested (long) while the hypothetical road to stabilization in our financial system remains unclear. Selling all (or completely hedging) longs at the open may prove to be a prudent response all things considered. This is a trader's market and this possibility should not be beyond comprehensible.
Above: King Sanford Weill Medical Center
Citigroup.  It's funny how little flack empire builder Sandy Weill has taken recently despite the official death of the Citi financial supermarket business model. Here's a reminder that when you, fair reader, become a billionaire don't forget to get out before the market turns, and spread your wealth to every worthy charity you come across, especially hospitals and schools. Of the two the latter is the more important part of your legacy.  It also helps to have a villain like Bernie Madoff heavily occupy media coverage. 
Disclosures: No position. 

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