NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Year-to-date NFL: 7-1. +5.5 units; Cumulative 10-3. +6.5 units

At this point in the road to the Superbowl attrition due to injury, self-inflicted or otherwise, is a major factor. The Ravens may have won the battle last week, but could have sacrificed the war if LB Terrell Suggs (bad shoulder) and CB Samari Rolle (groin) can't go full-bore on Sunday. Sometimes a team can exceed expectations by showing an ability to "rally" around a fallen leader for a game or so, but I expect the Ravens will need every ounce of its talent on D to finally beat the Steelers this season. My experience suggests not to expect much from these impact players even if they play; painkillers won't do much for these injuries. On the other sideline stud S Troy Polamalu's bum ankle offsets things a little. In the other matchup, I expect WR Anquan Boldin (hip/hamstring) to be recovered in time to play the Eagles. Three seasons ago the Cincinnati Bengals rose from the ashes of NFL purgatory and may have reached (and won) Superbowl XL if Carson Palmer wasn't injured by a dirty play. That's why we watch the game.

Eagles vs. CARDINALS (+4). 1 unit. Taking the points ["Don’t forget to put a little aside for an outright upset."] last week was a winning contrarian call that admittedly still gives me a warm and fuzzy for being an early supporter of the Cardinals quixotic quest. The line opened +3 as I expected, but the fact it creeped up to +4 has me scratching my head. A home dog situation this late in the playoffs is completely unheard of as it is! Perhaps the turmoil in the financial markets has people applying a de-risking mentality to sports speculation as well. [I note the herd is usually punished; underdogs are 5-3 in the playoffs to date]. I consider the 48-20 result in the regular season matchup mostly a product of circumstances that are irrelevant this week. If anything, it raises the probability of an Eagles letdown, especially after an emotional victory over a hated division rival.

For the Cards, a game played at home (7-2) in 70 degree weather in January is the dream scenario as they feature a HOF-caliber QB with a triumvirate or WR that gained 1000+ yards, including a Jerry Rice-like Larry Fitzgerald, at his disposal. The Eagles may have the personnel in the secondary to stick with its blitzing scheme, but I'm optimistic that the Cardinals coach (an ex-Steelers O-coordinator) will be able to counter effectively. Ultimately, I have confidence in the Redbirds mettle as demonstrated by the way they responded to allowing a soft opening drive TD last week. 33 unanswered points on the road against a heavily favored team is no mean feat.

Phoenix was the first victim of QB Donovan McNabb's redemption run since being benched for poor play. However, something bothers me about how he feigns his nonchalance since the benching (let alone the overtime rule fiasco) with his improved play. Donovan deserves credit for rallying, but he still has lots to prove while the stakes are highest and conditions are presumably in his favor. It's been a problem since starring at Syracuse. It's just a hunch, but I think he harbors too much bitterness to make a psychological breakthrough. The vastly improved organization and confidence of Arizona's defense has enabled this historic franchise run, but is still the worst of the remaining contenders. I'm just betting that McNabb will fail to exploit it. No PA-only Superbowl for you Governor Rendell, especially if RB Brian Westbrook’s knee ailment is a limiting factor. Follow-up: First off I'm glad McNabb is blameless. Arizona simply played one helluva game utilizing an A+ gameplan.  The middle screen TD in the red zone was emblematic of sticking with low-risk, quick-hitting plays against an aggressive blitzing D. Running as much as possible to preserve balance was key. S-W-E-E-T.

Ravens vs. STEELERS (-6). 1 unit. Playing Round 3 between these like-minded teams would suggest another highly competitive brawl as the prior two outings were decide by a cumulative seven points. 0-2 thusfar, the Ravens revenge factor needs to be considered, but not blind the bigger issues at hand. Most worrisome is that the Ravens D is not only hobbled as mentioned above, but the Steelers are more than capable of marching down the field like the Titans did the week before. The O-line and RB are not as good, but the QB/WR/TE threats help offset that. Moreover, I find it improbable the Ravens get lucky again creating turnovers while backed near its own goal. Baltimore's D is high class, but nowhere close to the Superbowl-winning 2000 vintage.

On the other side of the ball I expect the difference in playoff experience to finally catch up with the Ravens rookie head coach-QB tandem. Flacco is due for a less-than-efficient outing, and Harbaugh may be tempted to rely on play-calling that I found way too conservative against a strong defense. While the game is still close, Baltimore must not simply rely too heavily on playing for field position and leaning on its defense; playing "not to lose" won't work. I forecast an favorable turnover differential for the Steelers leaas to a comfortable win, especially since the NFL's best pass rush can handily stifle the Ravens catchup offense. Follow-up: To paraphrase the illustrious ex-Cardinals coach Dennis Green, "The Ravens were who I thought they were." The Steelers were underwhelming and sloppy. My intial reaction is that the Cardinals will be installed as a very small (under 3) dog.