FOOTBALL FRENZY

Year to date: 1-0, +1 unit.

MAJOR COLLEGE BOWL GAMES

[Sugar Bowl] Utah vs. ALABAMA (-9.0). 1 unit.  Despite suspending All-American left tackle Andre Smith, Alabama should comfortably control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  That means by the second half the Tide the will have worn the Utes down and “Roll” into victory.  In fact, I see the high profile suspension, along with playing in the Louisiana Superdome, as helpful toward keeping Alabama focused throughout.  Follow-up: 'Bama forced to reshuffle entire O-line after backup LT when down early with injury.

[Fiesta Bowl] OHIO STATE (+8.0) vs. Texas. 1 unit.  I’m taking the points, and wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset.  Let’s face it: this is not the game Texas was looking to compete in.  Without the carrot of winning the national championship due to the shortcomings of the infamous BCS system, I expect a battle-tested super frosh QB Terrelle Pryor wish the Longhorns still had Vince Young; VY probably wouldn’t mind being back in Austin either. Follow-up: RB Beanie Wells 2H concussion forced OSU to adjust, and it took just a little too long to figure it out.  Almost pulled off the upset.

[BCS National Championship] FLORIDA (-3.0) vs. Oklahoma. 1 unit.  Florida is more balanced, has the been-there-done-that leadership advantage of QB Tim Tebow, and playing in-state.  The little things and an unending supply of speed demons should carry the day. Follow-up: Gator defense was outstanding.  Tebow was resilient after chucking the early INT.  Congrats.

NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

The first round of the NFL features an unprecedented number of three “home dogs” and one pick’em.  This weekend is normally good for two outright underdog victories, and for whatever reason the Sunday games usually seem to be blowouts.

Falcons vs. CARDINALS (+1.5). 0.5 units.  Neither side has recent playoff pedigree so I’m focusing on likely QB performance.  To me all Kurt Warner has to do is play within himself and take advantage of his receiver mismatches over a under-sized secondary, and avoid gambling and fumbling (not an easy task, I know).  Offensive ROY QB Matt Ryan has tremendous poise, but he is still a rookie with no playoff experience that tried to do too much in the Big East championship versus Virginia Tech last fall.  Remember?  Follow-up: In the 'Zona! Congrats to its 1st home playoff victory since 1947!

Colts vs. CHARGERS (Pick’em). 0.5 units.  The Colts offense is not as explosive as it used to be, which is why QB Peyton Manning was just awarded his third League MVP award.  The Chargers also deserve lots of credit for showing tons of tenacity and salvaging a potential playoff run.  LT is clearly not the same player [and may not play], but I love QB Philip Rivers’ development as a leader.  Playing on a busted ACL in the AFC Championship Game last year is an indelible memory; they almost won, too.  Follow-up: Punter Mike Scifres and a 5'6" RB Darren Sproles stole the show! Awesome OT game.

RAVENS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins. 1 unit.  Kudos to Chad Pennington’s achieving Comeback Player of the Year for the second time, but I doubt the Wildcat offense will  generate big-plays against the Ravens ball-hawking D.  Let’s not forget that D-coordinator Rex Ryan is trying to impress so he can finally earn a head coaching job. Baltimore’s style of play also travels well, especially down to sunny Miami.  I could even see the Ravens defense outscoring its offense; watchout for S Ed Reed.  Follow-up: Ravens didn't allow a TD off an early fumble, and Reed had 2 INT, including a TD return.  QB Joe Flacco showed impressive mobility.

EAGLES (-3) vs. Vikings. 1 unit.   I think people typically ascribe too much credit to momentum in the NFL, but the Eagles performance against division rival Cowboys to secure the final wildcard berth in week 17 made a major statement.  Donovan McNabb has been (rightfully) much maligned, but playing away from the infamous Philly fans provides the ideal conditions to build playoff confidence as the NY Giants did last year.  Mediocre Minnesota QB Tarvaris Jackson will probably be running for his life against a relentless blitz.  Very favorable Philly match-up, especially if Adrian Peterson can’t rush for 150 yards.  Follow-up: A one-dimensional offense is not going to cut it during the playoffs.