MADNESS MEETS THE LOTTERY, PART 2

Part 2; a continuation from yesterday's piece.

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ERIC MAYNOR, VCU

Unlike the other players I watched this weekend, VCU’s Eric 

Maynor had only one opportunity to showcase his talent, since VCU lost to UCLA. On paper, the 6’3" point guard looked good, scoring 21 points, pulling down 6 rebounds, and dishing 7 assists. But a closer inspection of his game gave me some cause for concern.

First, the positives, though. Maynor has a beautiful shot in which he extends his arms over his head while in the air, floats for a bit, and then releases a tight spiral. It’s difficult

 to guard, particularly when he’s falling away from the basket. He also has a knack for drawing fouls after penetrating into the lane. And Maynor can be explosive to the basket when he feels like it. Still, Maynor seemed to lack two essential ingredients necessary to succeed on the NBA level as a point guard – ball control and decision-making. Maynor will often head down the court like a frightened deer, darting in and out of defenses. He can be trigger happy on both his passes and his shots. At times, he seemed out of control. On top of this, he dribbles high off the ground, increasing the likelihood of steals or turnovers. He can get away with some of this at the college level, but Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and their peers will not be so forgiving. To compound this issue, his basketball judgment needs improvement. The final play of the UCLA game serves as a great example. With 12 second remaining and VCU down by a point, Maynor came off a screen and dribbled inside the three point line. With one man to beat, he could have dribbled into the lane and drawn a foul (he is, after all, a 79% free throw shooter). Instead, he double clutched and took a floating jumper with a man in his face as time expired. In one of the most 

important game of his life, Maynor’s shot came up short. (Yes, I realize that Maynor beat Duke in the last second in 2007 – I’m not saying he isn’t clutch, just that his decision-making can use a little fine tuning.) From an NBA-readiness perspective, I was actually more impressed with Maynor’s teammate Larry Sanders. The guy plays like a spitting image of Dikembe Mutumbo, sans finger wagging. From what I hear, Sanders isn’t likely to come out this year, but he looked to me like a top-ten pick in the 2010 draft.

Is he worth a top-five pick? Sanders is closer than Maynor, in my opinion. But I wouldn’t rule out a mid-first round selection for Maynor. A team like the 76ers, for example, could use a young point guard.

HASHEEM THABEET, Connecticut

We all know you can’t teach height. At 7’3, Thabeet has this covered anyway. But what was crazy about watching Thabeet last week, first Thursday against Chatanooga, then Saturday against Texas A&M, is that you can teach this reed of a center pretty much anything else, and fast.

It’s jarring to think that two years ago as a freshman, Thabeet couldn’t catch the ball well. He’d get pushed around with his back to the basket. More often than not, his low post game consisted of throwing – using the word shooting doesn’t quite capture it – the ball in the vicinity of the hoop, and using his height advantage to stuff down the rebound. He also passed the ball poorly.

Against Chatanooga and Texas A&M, I watched a different athlete. Thabeet had much better body control. Six minutes into the Chatanooga contest, Thabeet took a bounce pass on a fast break, pumped faked once while a defender blew by, and dunked the basketball. Two minutes later, same thing, although this time with a wonderful catch under the basket. Two years ago, the pass would have sailed out of bounds.

He also handled the double team well, either taking a short hook shot, powering to the basket for a score (on his first attempt), or passing the ball out to teammates A.J. Price or Craig Austrie. He ran the court well for his height. And Thabeet’s well-documented defense is NBA-ready; his ability to block shots and, more significantly, keep the ball in play (ala Alonzo Mourning) will keep NBA executives salivating.

So the tournament thus far showed NBA franchises a few constants – Thabeet is tall, he’s coachable, and he can swat a basketball. But the Texas A&M game in particular demonstrated the risks of taking him as a top-five lottery pick. First, he shoots an ugly, parabolic mid-range jumper. Especially at his weight, Thabeet can’t expect to dominate inside three feet of the basket like in college (Chatanooga had only player on their team taller than 6’8, for example – in the NBA, not happening). This necessitates developing a stronger jump shot, or at least a more consistent hook shot. He also needs to work on his free throw percentage – 63% from the line can win you a contest at a county fair, but it won’t cut in it the NBA (unless you are Shaq or Ben Wallace – Thabeet is neither).

Is he worth a top-five pick? This year, definitely. Last year, meh…. Teams like the Kings, Warriors, or Knicks will be tempted to use their pick on Thabeet to shore up their porous defenses, and rightfully so.

JORDAN HILL, Arizona I’m not going to waste too much time on Jordan Hill. He’s a perfectly nice NBA role player. The 6-10 forward is scrappy. He sets picks well. He’ll scratch for rebounds. He has a pretty solid drop step. He follows-up his shot well, and on the other end of the court, he can block a shot or two. He accomplished all this in his first two rounds against Utah and Cleveland State, and wound up with an admirable 17 points and 13 rebounds, and 16 points and 9 rebounds, respectively. In the NBA, though, this effort will result in about 5-10 points and 4-6 rebounds, and maybe a block here or there. On top of this, Hill has some major flaws. He commits cheap fouls. He’ll sometimes get lazy in the paint and forget to box out. He can’t shoot from outside five feet to save his career.

We’ve all seen Jordan Hill before. Next time you’re bored, try this parlor game. Flip over a boggle hour-glass and see if you can name how many Jordan Hills of the world have floated through the NBA over the past decade before it bottoms out. Just off the top of my head, how’s Chris Wilcox, Joakim Noah, Shane Battier (but without the brains), Josh Boone, or Erick Dampier. I’m sure you can do me one better. These are all nice players with solid careers, but…

…are any of them worth a top-five pick? No. Neither is Hill.

Sadly, with this year’s mostly underwhelming crop, he might just find himself there. Maybe he can match up with Beasley.

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PH blog loved the candid insight. Thanks!