BEARD LUCK CHARM

Issues of veracity notwithstanding, the only thing that has remotely "worked" for the market recently took place last Tuesday when FED Chairman Bernanke asserted that our major banks did not need anything remotely resembling nationalization. Today he's speaking again at 10 a.m. and all eyes will be glued on everyone's new favorite lucky charm. Believe me, the markets want to be seduced by anything or anyone to break this negative feedback selloff. Tim Geithner is also due to me making public comments at 12:30. If he, as Treasury Secretary, can give ANY indication that this administration is adequately chipping away at the herculean task at hand of saving the economy it will be off to the races this afternoon; UP! Unfortunately, it's hard to say what he's going to say, but Wall Street loves when expectations are surpassed! I wish I was joking.

I usually don't pay much attention to pre-market futures except when market psychology is very frail; I've been worried about market capitulation, though, especially after yesterday. However, futures are actually up right now so I think it indicates that the market receptive to the possibily of some good news. Since everybody and their mother is looking toward technical analysis to provide some guidance (and gaining little) I believe the conditions are ripe for a little rally. Finally.

I'm afraid that it appears the China, for the most part, has finished restocking on commodities (note how the dry bulk charter rates have moderated again), but I would expect the cyclicals/commodity plays to work best if the market rallies. There also has been increased chatter (of hope) that India is primed to take the mantle of driving commodity demand from the Chinese (gimme a break, they have huge national debt problems). Just getting dipping your foot into the shallow end of the pool with general market exposure would be my recommendation for right now though.

In the meantime, Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) manager Bill Miller is eating some more crow after getting another another major market call wrong. I'm, of course, referring to his declaration that we reached a market bottom last fall. I think the odds that he is ousted (or retire if you want to call it that) by the end of summer has risen to 80%. How much damage will one man be allowed to inflict upon a firm? Why on earth would he make a market-timing call as a purported value investor? Just goes to show that the energy of developing a strong top-down view or and assessing the magnitude of near-term catalysts can't ever be overlooked.