MADNESS MEETS THE LOTTERY, PART 1

Today's post is Part I of a contribution from Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. Currently an attorney for the federal government, UCL visualizes dunking over Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje as a self-motivational tool. So far, his entire Final Four remains alive.

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Sprinkled throughout the crowd during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament last week were NBA scouts, executives, and perhaps even a coach. Last year, Pat Riley temporarily left his coaching duties in Miami to observe potential draft picks in the first few rounds of the tournament (and look where it got him – Michael “Semi-Fraud” Beasley!). 

So I figured if Riley could do it, I could too.  Reviewing the first two rounds of the tournament is an imperfect science; the sample size is small, and a streaky player may get overrated. But the tournament also serves to demonstrate a player’s leadership and ability to cope under stress better than any NBA combine.  Below are my reviews of five players – Blake Griffin, James Harden, (part I)  – who most draft experts currently rate as potential top-five picks that are playing in this year’s NCAA tournament.

BLAKE GRIFFIN, Oklahoma

Blake Griffin has his critics, much like democracy, god, and freedom have their critics. After watching his first two rounds against Morgan State and Michigan, this much seems clear – in a weak draft, Griffin is the one player with NBA All-Star potential.

The first thing you notice about him is that on nearly every offensive and defensive series, Griffin contributes. The guy is ubiquitous. He’ll set a high screen on one series, rope in a rebound on the next, post up in the box while double teamed and still score after that, steal a pass at the top of the key on the following drive, hit a mid-range jumper on the next (he has a surprisingly fluid jump shot), and take a charge after that. He’s got the energy of a particle accelerator, but he’s also in control of his game.  For example, while he kept himself out of foul trouble against Michigan, his opponent, Manny Harris, had two fouls within five minutes of tip-off, and never factored into the game after that. 

Two aspects of Griffin’s game, however, really stand out. The first is his feet. They are like granite. I haven’t seen a college player with Griffin’s ability to position himself in the paint, set a screen, or box out since Tim Duncan.  You can’t teach that. 

The second exceptional aspect of his game is his toughness. Against Morgan State, forward Ameer Ali flipped Griffin over his shoulders like a lumberjack disposing wood. He played through it. Against Michigan, with 15:09 to go in the first half, Griffin had his knees undercut, fell back, but still held on to a rebound.  A few minutes later, a dive on the court resulted in a bloody elbow. A few minutes after that, he’s got gauze shoved up his nose to stop it from bleeding.  Griffin still played 39 minutes.

Griffin’s most glaring weakness is his free throw shot, which looks like he’s casting a fishing line.  He could also use another two inches.  His 6’10 frame puts him in NBA no-man’s land – too small for a post-up center, but his outside shot isn’t consistent enough yet to succeed as a prototypical power forward.  Still, Griffin is the one player in this draft with immediate break-out potential.

Is he worth a top-five pick?  He’s worth the top pick.  He can help any team in this draft with a starting power forward not named Bosh, Duncan, or Stoudemire.  

JAMES HARDEN, Arizona State

Griffin’s doppelganger this weekend was Arizona State shooting guard James Harden.  He had all the energy of a burnt out light bulb.  In his first round match-up against Temple, my notes read as follows: 15:00, first half – three is blocked, looks like Pendergraff’s team; 13:44 first half – hangs around the three point line like a ghost; 13:44, second half – cheap foul, still no energy; 11:45, second half – Harden travels; 9:45, second half – Harden drives, passes out, deflected, stolen by Christmas; 9:21, second half – airball, Pendergraff bails him out again; 8:43, second half – they’ve stopped double teaming Harden, still sleep-walking; 6:26, second half – Harden stood outside the three-point line for a good 4-5 seconds without moving (shouldn’t the NCAA amend the rulebook and consider this a turnover?); 2:35, second half – Temple is forcing the ball to Harden and away from Glasser, pathetic. 

So for all you Harden apologists, please don’t give me that Harden was “contained” by Syracuse’s fabled 2-3 zone defense two days later, resulting in his eye-poppingly pathetic 10 points on 2-10 shooting (and no points in the first half).  He was doing the same thing on Friday against Temple’s match-up zone.  Frankly, Harden just played without motivation, in two of the most important games of his life. He also lacks that burst of speed off the dribble that you would want from an NBA shooting guard. Harden runs up and down the court like he is stepping through burnt marshmallows. His shot was consistently off. Even his court awareness, apparently his greatest asset, seemed spotty. 

Meanwhile two other future NBA players shone on the court against Harden.  On Friday, Temple’s Dionte Christmas looked like a raw version of Reggie Miller.  On Sunday, Syracuse’s Johnny Flynn (showing no worse for wear playing all those OT minutes in the Big East tournament) demonstrated a level of explosiveness that should have taught Harden a thing or two about elevating one's play for the NCAA's, but didn’t.)

Is he worth a top-five pick? If he was auditioning for a stint in Moscow or Tel Aviv, maybe.  In the NBA, not even close.  I can’t image his draft status not suffering heavily after this weekend.

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Editor's Note: Come back tomorrow morning for the breakdown of Eric Maynor (VCU), Jordan Hill (Arizona), and Hasheem Thabeet (UConn).