NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Year to date: 6-1. +4 units

In case you haven’t been able to pay attention closely, there is not a single noteworthy team in the NFL this year.  Sure, somebody had to earn No.1 seeds in each conference, but that’s purely semantics.  Recent history also has demonstrated that the bye week is nice to have, but hardly provides an insurmountable edge.  It also wasn’t too long ago when the best team in the NFL was the NY Jets(!).  They had just defeated the Patriots and Titans (on the road!) in a span of 10 days prior to Thanksgiving, and had maintained a healthy squad.  Now the head coach’s job, let alone the moniker “Mangenius,” has been revoked, and nobody (read: me) would shed tears if legendary QB Favre finally retires.  From top to bottom, with exception of the Lions, it’s all about “Any Given Sunday” so one’s default bias should be to take the points!  Go Cards!

RAVENS (+3) vs. Titans. 1 unit.  Besides K Rod Bironas, the Titans offense does not match up well against the Ravens.  No WR playmakers and an immobile QB means the Thunder and Lightning running attack will probably be stifled by my favorite defense.  Titans like to go to its TEs, but the Raven’s LB corps is the strongest in the league.  The injury status of ancient C Kevin Mawae doesn’t help prospects and he was deemed a Pro Bowler this year.  I like the Ravens skilled players just a little more, and as long as continually improving QB Joe Flacco holds his own, the birds should win a black and blue type game. Follow-up: Forecast didn't account for total lack of discipline by the home Titans. Ravens D is nowhere close to prime vintage. That being said I hope Rex Ryan is next Jets head coach.

CARDINALS (+10) vs. Panthers. 1 unit.   The oft-quoted stat you’ve been hearing is thatArizona was 0-5 while playing in the East Coast this year; blown out three times. So what?Football players don’t specialize in geography, cartography, or anything to do with Rand McNally.  Psychology is the only thing that really matters at this level.  What’s important is that one of those games was a 4-point loss to Carolina that could have gone the other way.  The injury to WR Anquan Boldin dampens my spirits if he can’t play at full strength, but nobody is giving the DL and secondary the credit they deserve for last week; they have a shot at taking away Steve Smith this time.  A team playing with confidence and zero pressure is extremely dangerous.  That’s enough for me to disregard the line that simply reflects a dearth of Arizona Cardinal fans.  Don’t forget to put a little aside for an outright upset.  Follow-up: Combination of Cards making plays and Jake Delhomme stinking up the joint was all she wrote. While 'Zona's D met my expections, the Panthers DC should be fired for not taking away Larry Fitzgerald.

EAGLES (+4) vs. Giants. 1 unit.   The remarkable 180 degree reversal in perception of Coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning is breathtaking.  Last year was a fairy tale run.  This time around upholding the role of defending Champs and lacking the services of Plaxico "Sure Shot" Burress will be major burdens. Another big one is a hobbled Justin Tuck. The only reason why they had a chance against the Pats last season was that the pass rush simultaneously featured 3 DEs playing at a Pro Bowl level. What happens this year if the Eagles seize an early lead, and they have to abandon their dominating run attack? Depending on Eli Manning is still something to be avoided methinks. The Eagles D has been very solid over the past month+: It’s not like trying to stop Adrian Peterson last week was an easy task.  And forget about being intimidated by a familiar division rival.  If the Eagles shoot out of the gate early like I think they will and take advantage of the Giants’ rust, the consensus opinion of Coughlin will soon join mine again. The Donovan McNabb redemption run rolls on. Y’know kind of like Manning’s last year.  Bring on the renewal of Chunky Soup commercials! Follow-up: When you face a great D, you have to try passing earlier in the game. Eli has always preferred up-tempo so why not explore that earlier?  Coughlin needed to give Eli a chanve to get into rhythm despite the bad early INT.  

CHARGERS (+6) vs. Steelers. 0.5 units.  My take the points mantra is suffering a crisis of confidence for this matchup.  I don't see superstar RB LaDainian Tomlinson playing with his injury, and last week's hero Darren Sproles is unlikely to provide a similar impact.  It's just hard to repeat, the little man's probably beat up, and Heinz field conditions is unfavorable to benefit a "cutter."  SD will need a big game from 3rd string speedster Michael Bennett.  Said crappiness of field has always been a bane to opposing kickers, too.  K Nate Kaeding is very talented, but also has a choking problem in the playoffs.  Lastly, whenever a player is arrested during the playoffs (WR Vincent Jackson's DUI) the team has not played well.  Despite the negatives I think Phillip Rivers should continue to be a major difference maker while I'm expecting less-than-stellar play from Ben Roethlisberger who is returning from a recent concussion.  I would also think Steelers opt for a more conservative to protect its QB.  Watch out for the trick plays in this game. Follow-up: The Chargers hardly embarassed themselves, and even snuffed out that trick play I was looking for.  Steelers were both solid and opportunistic.  I particularly liked how often they threw the ball deep with max protection. Controlling the ball 98.11% of the 3Q was all she wrote.

FOOTBALL FRENZY

Year to date: 1-0, +1 unit.

MAJOR COLLEGE BOWL GAMES

[Sugar Bowl] Utah vs. ALABAMA (-9.0). 1 unit.  Despite suspending All-American left tackle Andre Smith, Alabama should comfortably control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  That means by the second half the Tide the will have worn the Utes down and “Roll” into victory.  In fact, I see the high profile suspension, along with playing in the Louisiana Superdome, as helpful toward keeping Alabama focused throughout.  Follow-up: 'Bama forced to reshuffle entire O-line after backup LT when down early with injury.

[Fiesta Bowl] OHIO STATE (+8.0) vs. Texas. 1 unit.  I’m taking the points, and wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset.  Let’s face it: this is not the game Texas was looking to compete in.  Without the carrot of winning the national championship due to the shortcomings of the infamous BCS system, I expect a battle-tested super frosh QB Terrelle Pryor wish the Longhorns still had Vince Young; VY probably wouldn’t mind being back in Austin either. Follow-up: RB Beanie Wells 2H concussion forced OSU to adjust, and it took just a little too long to figure it out.  Almost pulled off the upset.

[BCS National Championship] FLORIDA (-3.0) vs. Oklahoma. 1 unit.  Florida is more balanced, has the been-there-done-that leadership advantage of QB Tim Tebow, and playing in-state.  The little things and an unending supply of speed demons should carry the day. Follow-up: Gator defense was outstanding.  Tebow was resilient after chucking the early INT.  Congrats.

NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

The first round of the NFL features an unprecedented number of three “home dogs” and one pick’em.  This weekend is normally good for two outright underdog victories, and for whatever reason the Sunday games usually seem to be blowouts.

Falcons vs. CARDINALS (+1.5). 0.5 units.  Neither side has recent playoff pedigree so I’m focusing on likely QB performance.  To me all Kurt Warner has to do is play within himself and take advantage of his receiver mismatches over a under-sized secondary, and avoid gambling and fumbling (not an easy task, I know).  Offensive ROY QB Matt Ryan has tremendous poise, but he is still a rookie with no playoff experience that tried to do too much in the Big East championship versus Virginia Tech last fall.  Remember?  Follow-up: In the 'Zona! Congrats to its 1st home playoff victory since 1947!

Colts vs. CHARGERS (Pick’em). 0.5 units.  The Colts offense is not as explosive as it used to be, which is why QB Peyton Manning was just awarded his third League MVP award.  The Chargers also deserve lots of credit for showing tons of tenacity and salvaging a potential playoff run.  LT is clearly not the same player [and may not play], but I love QB Philip Rivers’ development as a leader.  Playing on a busted ACL in the AFC Championship Game last year is an indelible memory; they almost won, too.  Follow-up: Punter Mike Scifres and a 5'6" RB Darren Sproles stole the show! Awesome OT game.

RAVENS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins. 1 unit.  Kudos to Chad Pennington’s achieving Comeback Player of the Year for the second time, but I doubt the Wildcat offense will  generate big-plays against the Ravens ball-hawking D.  Let’s not forget that D-coordinator Rex Ryan is trying to impress so he can finally earn a head coaching job. Baltimore’s style of play also travels well, especially down to sunny Miami.  I could even see the Ravens defense outscoring its offense; watchout for S Ed Reed.  Follow-up: Ravens didn't allow a TD off an early fumble, and Reed had 2 INT, including a TD return.  QB Joe Flacco showed impressive mobility.

EAGLES (-3) vs. Vikings. 1 unit.   I think people typically ascribe too much credit to momentum in the NFL, but the Eagles performance against division rival Cowboys to secure the final wildcard berth in week 17 made a major statement.  Donovan McNabb has been (rightfully) much maligned, but playing away from the infamous Philly fans provides the ideal conditions to build playoff confidence as the NY Giants did last year.  Mediocre Minnesota QB Tarvaris Jackson will probably be running for his life against a relentless blitz.  Very favorable Philly match-up, especially if Adrian Peterson can’t rush for 150 yards.  Follow-up: A one-dimensional offense is not going to cut it during the playoffs.

A NEW YEAR

Authoring a blog can be more trouble than its worth, but an alteration in my career path and recent encouragement from a friend/blogger has me writing today.  The investing and sports punditocracy (idiocracy?) is already quite crowded, but these (not too dissimilar) subjects are my twin passions so I'm throwing my hat into the ring.  Truly a new year's resolution.

A Little Philosophy

Our culture's embrace of technological innovation is a double-edged sword.  Information continues to become commoditized at a rapid pace reducing all sorts of barriers to entry, which invites healthy competition, and thus innovation.  The incessant creative destruction seems to be a positive public good, but is extremely exhausting on a personal level.  To wit, what education/career path is "safe" enough for people to safely reach retirement nowadays? Certainly company loyalty is a laughable concept.  Everybody is "burdened" with heavy demands on continuing education whether you accumulate sheepskins or not.

Normal people (irrespective of intelligence) don't handle volatility well, which is why "deep insights" (e.g. LT trends) is a goal that many pursue, as do I.  The aforementioned is an important intellectual exercise, but tasting reward might not be timely enough.  Since we must live on a human timeframe, I think the more important question is, "What's the intermediate term (e.g. weeks/months) reality?" These days it seems this is the only "sweet spot" that a hybrid qaulitative/quantitiave-based strategy has a chance to deliver.

Glimmer of Optimism

On the heels of the worst global market selloff since the Great Depression, I expect a tremendous amount of volatility in 2009. Without the benefit of the longest secular bullmarket in history providing a tailwind, most investment advisors will be at a complete loss how to service their rapidly fleeing customer base.  Considering the prototypical incentive schemes and an utter lack of risk tolerance by investors, it won't be surprising that plenty of tears are to come for those less than nimble.

That being said, howver, I believe the market faces a low-risk for disaster at least until the U.S. presidential inauguration on Tuesday, January 20 when Barack Obama becomes the 44th POTUS.  The FED, Treasury, and incoming administration have been aggressively implementing short-term stimulus plans to avert another Great Recession (or Japanese-style deflation).  Knowing what mistakes to avoid repeating is ostensibly provides a great template, and many are loudly forecasting we should be coming out of recession by 2H09.  Since "everybody know's" the market discounts events 6-9 months in advance, clearly going long the market is "right."

Due to the context of this recession I'm very skeptical the global recovery will adhere to that timeline, which is why I offer such a ST positive view, but sitting on the sidelines when I expect the S&P500 index could threaten 1000 (+10.7%) on a solid foundation of hope means I advocate full positions in selective areas: growth stocks like large cap biotech (GILD, CELG), and industries with favorable y/y comps (US airlines ex-LUV) are favorites.

Meanwhile, infrastructure stocks (FLR, JEC, URS, ACM, GVA) have already run up, and probably worth riding longer, but these are at risk of "selling on the news" after inauguration. I'd like to hear more concrete (no pun intended) details materialize from Obama before recommending something beyond a momentume trade.

Disclosures: No position. 

LINE OF THE DAY:

[Rose Bowl] Penn State vs. USC (-9). 1 unit.   I expect the Trojans to romp over the Nittany Lions.  The mental letdown against Oregon State cost them at a shot for the BCS championship game, but is a scenario unlikely to be repeated with Coach Pete Carroll at the helm.  It also doesn't hurt that the starting 11 on both sides of the ball for USC is chock full of pro talent, and they have dominated opponents consistently all year.  Playing at the Rose Bowl, essentially a USC home game, is a psychological advantage that makes PSU's task all the more insurmountable especially since they don't have a good enough running game to "manage" a victory.   Besides the standard disclaimer of avoiding giving up defensive TDs, this game should otheriwise be fun to watch as an early preview of future NFL talent if not for its competitiveness.  Follow-up: One funky high snap on a punt while running out the clock was the only cause for concern.