D-Wade and Bernie the Mascot: Beauty in Motion

Dave "Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer" Hensel returns to reflect on the surreal and sublime his unthawed mind witnessed from the stands at Game 3 of the Miami Heat-Atlanta Hawks series. -pH

Television Makes Dwayne Wade Look Slow

I counted at least four highlight reel plays by Wade – two trampoline dunks and two beautiful blocked shots (including one with two hands, like a volleyball player stuffing ba spike).  Still, the best play I saw that night came on a missed layup.  That is because I witnessed, in person, Dwayne Wade’s crossover dribble.

Television does not do this move justice.  Wade had the ball at the top of the key, waited for his defender to lean right, and then exploded to the left.  He missed the ensuing layup but, as only Dwayne Wade can, drew the foul.  Now, I’ve watched Jordan in person.  I’ve seen John Stockton, and Reggie Miller too.  I viewed White Men Can’t Jump.  I’ve never seen anything like Wade’s crossover.  It’s effortless and lightning quick, like watching Mike Tyson throw an undercut in the first minute and thirty seconds of Mike Tyson’s Punch Out.  It alone was worth the price of the ticket.

And seriously, is there anyone better at drawing a defensive foul than Wade?  The game’s best player at drawing offensive fouls is potentially looming in the second round – the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Anderson Verajao.  If that turns out to be the matchup, it will be like watching a crash test dummy take on the wall.

Jermaine O’Neal is a Very Serviceable 35 Year Old...

Problem is, the team guide lists him as 30. 

During a timeout, the Heat brought a group of geriatric dancers called the Golden Oldies to perform a routine in Phantom of the Opera facemasks (and yes – it’s as creepy as it sounds).  I could have sworn Jermaine O’Neal was up there.  He plays basketball the way a 65 year old dances – stiff, slow, and self conscious.

All this raises an intriguing question.  The Indiana Pacers drafted O’Neal 12 years ago out of high school, and although he’s only 30, he’s played in a lot of games.  Kevin Garnett seems to be breaking down at 32.  Going back a little farther, Darryl Dawkins and Shawn Kemp, both drafted extremely young, broke down early.  Do games played matter more than age?  Is Kobe next? (Probably not.)  Especially considering all the playoff games already under his belt, will LeBron make it past 30? (Yes.)  Is Kwame Brown in for a tough second act to his career? (Couldn’t be as bad as the first act, could it?)  With the first wave of high school draft picks hitting there 30s, this is definitely something to look out for.

Joe Johnson is Most Definitely Underrated

Joe Johnson is so quiet on the floor, you look up and he’s scored ten points, and you haven’t seen any of them.  He looks nondescript.  He plays nondescript.  His name is nondescript.  And yet, I love his game.  There’s nothing flashy or insincere about him; rather, he’ll get you points when you need them, pick up his teammates when they need it, and lead without showing off. 

If his name were Octagon Hammertime and he wore headband and played in Los Angeles, sports talk radio hosts and fans alike would be talking about him.  But his name is Joe Johnson and he plays in Atlanta.  This is his lot in life. 

 

Bernie the Mascot is a Beautiful Dancer

Speaking of nondescript, how does one describe Bernie the Mascot?  He makes the Philly Phanatic look downright human.  He’s also a jerk.  Seriously.  Years ago, I once watched him reach into some guy’s back pocket during a game, pull out his wallet, and toss it into the upper deck.  This begged the question – what on earth do the Heat see in him.

Now I know.  During a timeout, he danced to a medley ranging from Tchaikovsky to Baby’s Got Back.  The, uh, guy’s got moves.  He’s everything Jermaine O’Neal is not.

 

Black is Back?

Before the game, I was handed a tee-shirt by Heat staff that reads: “Miami Heat, Black is Back.”  I can’t tell if this is offensive or awesome.  My PC radar is on the fritz.  Can I wear this around New York?  It’s hot this week. 

     

CHALK IT UP: TAR HEELS SHOULD DOMINATE

[Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship] April 6, 2009 @ Ford Field. Detroit, MI.  Year-to-date: Cumulative 13-3. +9.5 units

That’s why they play the game.

That is the answer to the age-old question of why one should look forward to watch a championship game. At any level of competition, the emotions stirred and pressures unveiled when glory is at stake is as good a reason as any to enjoy being alive. Team or individual endeavor it matters not.

As best put by a fan sign I saw during the MSU-UConn semi-final game last Saturday: Heroes die; legends live forever.

In our nation’s sports culture the underdog is embraced like nowhere else, and when the Michigan State Spartans face the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight, sentimentality will extremely favor the de facto representatives of Detroit, the most economically brutalized metropolitan area in these historically bad economic times. Not surprisingly, MSU has been tagged as a team of destiny having already upset two other regional #1 seeds to arrive at this evening’s championship.

However, Ford Field provided little in the way of home-field advantage four months ago when North Carolina schooled MSU by 35 points. The extenuating circumstances pointed out in this article are legitimate so expecting more of the same for a team that has played so well recently is naïve, but the underlying point, as I’ve said before the tourney began, is that at their best North Carolina can make any team in the nation look amateurish.

NORTH CAROLINA (-7.5) vs  Michigan State. 1 unit.   The real problem for the Spartans tonight is that the Tar Heels are NOT defending champions. The four NBA draft-ready starters from Chapel Hill have been biding their time since last year’s embarrassing semi-final loss to Kansas for this precise moment. There is no entitlement-risk by taking the favorites tonight. Since we’re dealing with college-aged “student-athletes,” and not hardened professional, this is a factor that can’t be overlooked.

The great equalizer on any given night is great point guard play and sublime 3-point shooting, but it’s impossible not to give the distinct edge to the likes of PG Ty Lawson, SG Wayne Ellington, and G/F Danny Green who are frequently take wide-open shots because teams have to respect the interior play of host of post players, not the least of which is four-time All-America Tyler Hansbrough; does it really matter if he doesn’t project to be a NBA stud?

While most will be watching looking for an upset and some sort of karmic signal that our economy is on the path to recovery, I’m going to enjoy watching a college team that I’ve actually been able to see develop as a team the last three years assert their dominance and earn their deserved coronation as 2009 champions.  Prediction: 84-72.  Actual final: 89-72, pretty damn close!

GOODBYE S&P 500 at 800. HOPE TO SEE YOU AGAIN SOON.

Unfortunately, nobody took me up on my dinner wager offer on March 9. And even after a ~2% decline last Friday, S&P500 sits north of 800. Ok, that was fun.  Hope everybody had the sense to sell before the weekend as there is no way that last Monday's boffo performance will be repeating itself anytime soon.

Cars, Inc. - FAIL.  Unfortunately, March 31 is not only the end of the 1Q, but the deadline for the auto companies to impress the "Task Force" why they should warrant an additional lifeline from the government. Would it be too obvious to suggest that this will just be a stark reminder that there is no coherent economic recovery plan? Are we supposed to take the news that GM CEO Rick Wagoner was finally (albeit politely) kicked to the curb as progress? Chrysler doesn't even have a reason to exist: the Daimler de-merger annihilated its engineering talent (shifted to Deutschland) and overseas sales presence. It's hard to see how the latest auto sales figures to be released this Wednesday will be anything, but ugly; not seeing "at least they beat consensus" potential, either. In other words Xenon headlights can't illuminate the proverbial end of the tunnel.

The day also marks the end of the Japanese fiscal year. I think it's safe to say the passing of this "marking up period" will also mean the appetite for fresh buying will have passed. Speaking of which, I still think Sony (SNE) is one of the worst well-known companies to own on the planet. Even its Playstation franchise has to compete head-on with cash-rich MSFT and highly profitable niche player Nintendo (NTDOY).

Guilty.  Unfortunately, we're coming upon corporate confession season in the United States and this will also not be pretty. In particular the stimulus pacakge is still a non-event and the outlook for the balance of 1H, let alone 1Q, will be brutal. So brutal that everybody should snap awake to the reality that any future positive GDP forecast will be a 2010 event at best; calling for an upturn by December is laughable. When it comes to bad news, I guess there is only so much appetite to heed the warnings of the Nouriel Roubini's of the world.

Telepresence.  Frustration is thy name for this industry. The benefits seem legion, but the results have always been piss poor. First after 9/11, and again today when travel budgets are truly viewed as an extravagence, I'm still waiting for pure plays like Polycom's (PLCM) of the world to perform (CSCO is a major player, too). I have seen some positive analyst comments on Tandberg (trades in Europe), but when will I get to eat the proof in the pudding? Alas, the bar to spend on telepresence increases rapidly as reasonable substitutes emerge and strenghten, and extracting non-critical (let alone essential) capital expenditures is just not happening right now.

The bottom line is its extremely difficult coming up with plausible leaders for the next bull market right now, which is why the market the last few weeks can only be considered a mere bear-market rally. Cash remains king.

MADNESS MEETS THE LOTTERY, PART 2

Part 2; a continuation from yesterday's piece.

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ERIC MAYNOR, VCU

Unlike the other players I watched this weekend, VCU’s Eric 

Maynor had only one opportunity to showcase his talent, since VCU lost to UCLA. On paper, the 6’3" point guard looked good, scoring 21 points, pulling down 6 rebounds, and dishing 7 assists. But a closer inspection of his game gave me some cause for concern.

First, the positives, though. Maynor has a beautiful shot in which he extends his arms over his head while in the air, floats for a bit, and then releases a tight spiral. It’s difficult

 to guard, particularly when he’s falling away from the basket. He also has a knack for drawing fouls after penetrating into the lane. And Maynor can be explosive to the basket when he feels like it. Still, Maynor seemed to lack two essential ingredients necessary to succeed on the NBA level as a point guard – ball control and decision-making. Maynor will often head down the court like a frightened deer, darting in and out of defenses. He can be trigger happy on both his passes and his shots. At times, he seemed out of control. On top of this, he dribbles high off the ground, increasing the likelihood of steals or turnovers. He can get away with some of this at the college level, but Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and their peers will not be so forgiving. To compound this issue, his basketball judgment needs improvement. The final play of the UCLA game serves as a great example. With 12 second remaining and VCU down by a point, Maynor came off a screen and dribbled inside the three point line. With one man to beat, he could have dribbled into the lane and drawn a foul (he is, after all, a 79% free throw shooter). Instead, he double clutched and took a floating jumper with a man in his face as time expired. In one of the most 

important game of his life, Maynor’s shot came up short. (Yes, I realize that Maynor beat Duke in the last second in 2007 – I’m not saying he isn’t clutch, just that his decision-making can use a little fine tuning.) From an NBA-readiness perspective, I was actually more impressed with Maynor’s teammate Larry Sanders. The guy plays like a spitting image of Dikembe Mutumbo, sans finger wagging. From what I hear, Sanders isn’t likely to come out this year, but he looked to me like a top-ten pick in the 2010 draft.

Is he worth a top-five pick? Sanders is closer than Maynor, in my opinion. But I wouldn’t rule out a mid-first round selection for Maynor. A team like the 76ers, for example, could use a young point guard.

HASHEEM THABEET, Connecticut

We all know you can’t teach height. At 7’3, Thabeet has this covered anyway. But what was crazy about watching Thabeet last week, first Thursday against Chatanooga, then Saturday against Texas A&M, is that you can teach this reed of a center pretty much anything else, and fast.

It’s jarring to think that two years ago as a freshman, Thabeet couldn’t catch the ball well. He’d get pushed around with his back to the basket. More often than not, his low post game consisted of throwing – using the word shooting doesn’t quite capture it – the ball in the vicinity of the hoop, and using his height advantage to stuff down the rebound. He also passed the ball poorly.

Against Chatanooga and Texas A&M, I watched a different athlete. Thabeet had much better body control. Six minutes into the Chatanooga contest, Thabeet took a bounce pass on a fast break, pumped faked once while a defender blew by, and dunked the basketball. Two minutes later, same thing, although this time with a wonderful catch under the basket. Two years ago, the pass would have sailed out of bounds.

He also handled the double team well, either taking a short hook shot, powering to the basket for a score (on his first attempt), or passing the ball out to teammates A.J. Price or Craig Austrie. He ran the court well for his height. And Thabeet’s well-documented defense is NBA-ready; his ability to block shots and, more significantly, keep the ball in play (ala Alonzo Mourning) will keep NBA executives salivating.

So the tournament thus far showed NBA franchises a few constants – Thabeet is tall, he’s coachable, and he can swat a basketball. But the Texas A&M game in particular demonstrated the risks of taking him as a top-five lottery pick. First, he shoots an ugly, parabolic mid-range jumper. Especially at his weight, Thabeet can’t expect to dominate inside three feet of the basket like in college (Chatanooga had only player on their team taller than 6’8, for example – in the NBA, not happening). This necessitates developing a stronger jump shot, or at least a more consistent hook shot. He also needs to work on his free throw percentage – 63% from the line can win you a contest at a county fair, but it won’t cut in it the NBA (unless you are Shaq or Ben Wallace – Thabeet is neither).

Is he worth a top-five pick? This year, definitely. Last year, meh…. Teams like the Kings, Warriors, or Knicks will be tempted to use their pick on Thabeet to shore up their porous defenses, and rightfully so.

JORDAN HILL, Arizona I’m not going to waste too much time on Jordan Hill. He’s a perfectly nice NBA role player. The 6-10 forward is scrappy. He sets picks well. He’ll scratch for rebounds. He has a pretty solid drop step. He follows-up his shot well, and on the other end of the court, he can block a shot or two. He accomplished all this in his first two rounds against Utah and Cleveland State, and wound up with an admirable 17 points and 13 rebounds, and 16 points and 9 rebounds, respectively. In the NBA, though, this effort will result in about 5-10 points and 4-6 rebounds, and maybe a block here or there. On top of this, Hill has some major flaws. He commits cheap fouls. He’ll sometimes get lazy in the paint and forget to box out. He can’t shoot from outside five feet to save his career.

We’ve all seen Jordan Hill before. Next time you’re bored, try this parlor game. Flip over a boggle hour-glass and see if you can name how many Jordan Hills of the world have floated through the NBA over the past decade before it bottoms out. Just off the top of my head, how’s Chris Wilcox, Joakim Noah, Shane Battier (but without the brains), Josh Boone, or Erick Dampier. I’m sure you can do me one better. These are all nice players with solid careers, but…

…are any of them worth a top-five pick? No. Neither is Hill.

Sadly, with this year’s mostly underwhelming crop, he might just find himself there. Maybe he can match up with Beasley.

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PH blog loved the candid insight. Thanks!

MADNESS MEETS THE LOTTERY, PART 1

Today's post is Part I of a contribution from Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. Currently an attorney for the federal government, UCL visualizes dunking over Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje as a self-motivational tool. So far, his entire Final Four remains alive.

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Sprinkled throughout the crowd during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament last week were NBA scouts, executives, and perhaps even a coach. Last year, Pat Riley temporarily left his coaching duties in Miami to observe potential draft picks in the first few rounds of the tournament (and look where it got him – Michael “Semi-Fraud” Beasley!). 

So I figured if Riley could do it, I could too.  Reviewing the first two rounds of the tournament is an imperfect science; the sample size is small, and a streaky player may get overrated. But the tournament also serves to demonstrate a player’s leadership and ability to cope under stress better than any NBA combine.  Below are my reviews of five players – Blake Griffin, James Harden, (part I)  – who most draft experts currently rate as potential top-five picks that are playing in this year’s NCAA tournament.

BLAKE GRIFFIN, Oklahoma

Blake Griffin has his critics, much like democracy, god, and freedom have their critics. After watching his first two rounds against Morgan State and Michigan, this much seems clear – in a weak draft, Griffin is the one player with NBA All-Star potential.

The first thing you notice about him is that on nearly every offensive and defensive series, Griffin contributes. The guy is ubiquitous. He’ll set a high screen on one series, rope in a rebound on the next, post up in the box while double teamed and still score after that, steal a pass at the top of the key on the following drive, hit a mid-range jumper on the next (he has a surprisingly fluid jump shot), and take a charge after that. He’s got the energy of a particle accelerator, but he’s also in control of his game.  For example, while he kept himself out of foul trouble against Michigan, his opponent, Manny Harris, had two fouls within five minutes of tip-off, and never factored into the game after that. 

Two aspects of Griffin’s game, however, really stand out. The first is his feet. They are like granite. I haven’t seen a college player with Griffin’s ability to position himself in the paint, set a screen, or box out since Tim Duncan.  You can’t teach that. 

The second exceptional aspect of his game is his toughness. Against Morgan State, forward Ameer Ali flipped Griffin over his shoulders like a lumberjack disposing wood. He played through it. Against Michigan, with 15:09 to go in the first half, Griffin had his knees undercut, fell back, but still held on to a rebound.  A few minutes later, a dive on the court resulted in a bloody elbow. A few minutes after that, he’s got gauze shoved up his nose to stop it from bleeding.  Griffin still played 39 minutes.

Griffin’s most glaring weakness is his free throw shot, which looks like he’s casting a fishing line.  He could also use another two inches.  His 6’10 frame puts him in NBA no-man’s land – too small for a post-up center, but his outside shot isn’t consistent enough yet to succeed as a prototypical power forward.  Still, Griffin is the one player in this draft with immediate break-out potential.

Is he worth a top-five pick?  He’s worth the top pick.  He can help any team in this draft with a starting power forward not named Bosh, Duncan, or Stoudemire.  

JAMES HARDEN, Arizona State

Griffin’s doppelganger this weekend was Arizona State shooting guard James Harden.  He had all the energy of a burnt out light bulb.  In his first round match-up against Temple, my notes read as follows: 15:00, first half – three is blocked, looks like Pendergraff’s team; 13:44 first half – hangs around the three point line like a ghost; 13:44, second half – cheap foul, still no energy; 11:45, second half – Harden travels; 9:45, second half – Harden drives, passes out, deflected, stolen by Christmas; 9:21, second half – airball, Pendergraff bails him out again; 8:43, second half – they’ve stopped double teaming Harden, still sleep-walking; 6:26, second half – Harden stood outside the three-point line for a good 4-5 seconds without moving (shouldn’t the NCAA amend the rulebook and consider this a turnover?); 2:35, second half – Temple is forcing the ball to Harden and away from Glasser, pathetic. 

So for all you Harden apologists, please don’t give me that Harden was “contained” by Syracuse’s fabled 2-3 zone defense two days later, resulting in his eye-poppingly pathetic 10 points on 2-10 shooting (and no points in the first half).  He was doing the same thing on Friday against Temple’s match-up zone.  Frankly, Harden just played without motivation, in two of the most important games of his life. He also lacks that burst of speed off the dribble that you would want from an NBA shooting guard. Harden runs up and down the court like he is stepping through burnt marshmallows. His shot was consistently off. Even his court awareness, apparently his greatest asset, seemed spotty. 

Meanwhile two other future NBA players shone on the court against Harden.  On Friday, Temple’s Dionte Christmas looked like a raw version of Reggie Miller.  On Sunday, Syracuse’s Johnny Flynn (showing no worse for wear playing all those OT minutes in the Big East tournament) demonstrated a level of explosiveness that should have taught Harden a thing or two about elevating one's play for the NCAA's, but didn’t.)

Is he worth a top-five pick? If he was auditioning for a stint in Moscow or Tel Aviv, maybe.  In the NBA, not even close.  I can’t image his draft status not suffering heavily after this weekend.

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Editor's Note: Come back tomorrow morning for the breakdown of Eric Maynor (VCU), Jordan Hill (Arizona), and Hasheem Thabeet (UConn). 

SO MANY EMPTY SEATS

Today's post is a contribution from my friend, Shogun (Youtube). Follow him and BK drop some soccer science on Twitter (RoadtotheCup) or their biweekly podcasts on the www.roadtothecup.com. Meanwhile, his entire Final Four remains alive.

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Yackin with my man J.J. last nite - he asked me what I thought the biggest thing that had happened at the NCAA tourney so far... without any hesitation I said "it has to be the empty seats."  Not just one or two of them - but hundreds and hundreds of empty seats at every venue in the tournament.  Now don't get me wrong - the enthusiasm of the crowds are just as rabid as always for college basketball but the realization of a gripping recession has finally played itself out at our gut level.  It is hard to be more passionate about earthly things than Americans are to their alma maters in this annual countrywide basketball tournament, but in this place and time even the most devoted have opted to "watch in HD" which means the recession grip has not loosened and will not be over tomorrow or the next day...stay tuned and don't let CNBC fool ya - their is little confusion amongst the common people - hard economic realities will be with us past 2009 - but like so many of the exciting games in the tournament thus far - doesn't mean we still can't enjoy ourselves... strike up the band!!!

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Related link: [7 FEB 2009]  SPORTS LEAGUE PAIR TRADE: Short MLB, Long MLS

MARCH! MADNESS!

In about two hours worker productivity in the U.S. should become muffled by the phenomena of March Madness. We’re in the midst of a minor Depression so good working girls & boys will be minding their p’s & q’s, but make no mistake that those lucky enough to be following over the internet on the sly will be more preoccupied than usual. I theorized to a hedge fund manager friend that the high of the week on the indexes would take place yesterday partly because I knew from experience Wall Street traders are amongst the worst offenders of becoming distracted by the men’s college basketball tournament. The guise of settling positions and staying away from the potential volatility of a quadruple witching this Friday is just the elegant professional cover needed to eye the hi-def TV instead of stock screens; CNBC viewership will temporarily plummet.

Over the course of March Madness I am also happy to announce that the Paper Horticulture blog plans to introduce its first guest contributors.  Although not college basketball experts per se the writers are outstanding sports generalists. Unfortunately, I think this is a function of being acutely aware, as yours truly, that nobody would ever care much what we could do ON the field.

Without further ado, our final four selections:

Paper Horticulture

• East: (1) Pittsburgh
• South: (1) North Carolina
• Midwest:  (4) Wake Forest
• West: (11) Utah State

Champion: North Carolina over Wake Forest

UNC was the unanimous pre-season #1 team for a reason: The core squad, more than capable of winning last year, returned to the Chapel Hill campus intact on a mission to complete unfinished business and build on the already staggering Tar Heel basketball legacy. Of course, a big reason is that the four aspiring pros in the starting lineup don’t project to be anything special in the NBA, but when playing at their collective best has the potential of embarrassing any collegiate opponent. Without the artificial pressure of maintaining a pristine record, or a letdown from winning an emotionally draining ACC tournament, I think the conditions are ripe for the best team in the nation to rip through a final 6-game winning streak. PG Ty Lawson sitting out round 1 should be a non-event, although his play will be critical to bring home some hardware.

Dark Horse: I project Utah State reaching the final four due to my forecast of an unlikely string of favorable matchups, including an encounter with BYU in the 4^th round. 

Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer (nom de guerre of my choosing)

• East: (2) Duke
• South: (1) North Carolina
• Midwest:  (1) Louisville
• West: (1) Connecticut 

Champion: Connecticut over North Carolina.  [Editors note]: I can’t penalize someone who is picking with his heart and not his head when it comes to Coach Jim Calhoun’s Huskies program.

Dark Horse: Midwest (6) West Virginia. “I have them beating both Kansas and Michigan State and reaching the Elite 8 before getting tired and falling to Louisville.  I think Louisville is vulnerable, but they happen to be in a weak bracket. As for West Virginia, as much as I hate having to root for Bob Huggins, the Mountaneers play tight defense despite some size problems, and have some quality wins this year over Pitt and Villanova. They've also been toughened up by their ridiculous schedule, which is much tougher than what Michigan State or Kansas had to go through. I think the bracket shapes up well for them until Louisville. Now watch them go lose in the first round.

The Shogun Ill Emperor (www.roadtothecup.com)

• East: (1) Pittsburgh
• South: (2)Oklahoma
• Midwest:  (1) Louisville
• West: (2) Memphis

Champion: Pittsburgh over Louisville.  [Editors note]: From experience, I can attest that the Shogun is not a chalk player. However, despite the romance of the Cinderella team that has made this tourney so popular, there is no reason not to expect a 1- or 2- seed not to take the championship.

Dark horse: East (11) VCU. Sometimes it’s best to let others speak for you: "VCU, I think, has been playing strong, and I hate to say this, because my brother-in-law [Craig Robinson, Oregon State] is in the Pac-10 right now, but the Pac-10 has been looking pretty weak this year," said President Barack Obama. "I like that as an upset." It also helps that this little known program features potential NBA lottery picks in 2009 (PG Eric Maynor) and 2010 (F/C Larry Sanders).

Good luck!